To date, the country has exported 1.3 million tons of coffee, stockpiles under 50 thousand tons while demand is still high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that the 2016 – 2017 coffee season will be 1.3 million tonnes, down about 20 percent from the previous crop. Previous crop ($ 3.35 billion including processed coffee), thanks to export prices increased 30.4%.
Up to now, the country has exported 1.3 million tons, under 50 thousand tons inventory while the demand is still high. Thus, this season, exports of coffee will reach 1.35 million tons, up slightly compared to forecast.
According to preliminary statistics of Vietnam Customs, from January 1 to 15/8/2017, coffee exports reached 974,712 tons, valued at 2.22 billion USD. Coffee exports in the first 7 months of 2017 decreased 16.4% in volume but increased by 7.9% in value over the same period in 2016.
Export price increase offset output decrease
The average export price reached $ 2,262.8 per tonne, up 30.4 per cent over the same period in 2016. Germany and the United States continue to be the two largest coffee consuming markets of Vietnam with market share of 16% and 14.3%.
According to Vicofa, the Customs statistics date back to January 2017, but the coffee industry took time to calculate, and the annual harvest of coffee usually starts in October, ending in By the beginning of the year, the country has exported about 1.3 million tons of coffee, and stockpiles under 50 thousand tons, in this crop will certainly short of serious goods, in fact. In mid November new season.
Thus, clearly coffee prices from now until the end of the year can not be down.
Mr. Do Ha Nam, vice president of Vicofa cum General Director of Intimex Group, said that the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 1,000 VND / kg, fluctuating at 44,300 – 45,100 VND / kg.
On London trading floor, the price of Robusta coffee increased strongly. September futures added $ 54 to $ 2,116 a tonne. The November delivery was up $ 47 to $ 2,101 a tonne and the January contract rose $ 33 to $ 2,066 a tonne. Trading volume above average.
This season, Vietnam continues to lose big seasons, the export is expected to decrease by 20-30% compared to the previous crop, and basically the supply from Vietnam is exhausted, The quantity of goods on the market is lacking, forcing customers to enter the floor to get, because there are many foreign contracts are needed to buy but not available.
Therefore, the general trend is from now until the end of the year the price must be up but to what extent depends on the demand in the market.
In addition, information Brazil needs to import Robusta coffee for the roasting industry and instant coffee, due to last season’s Brazilian Robusta coffee suffered serious losses, down about 40% or 5 million bags. There are 12 million bags (1 bag = 60kg).
While global demand for Robusta coffee is growing better than Arabica, especially in Asian markets and emerging markets, further strengthening of coffee prices in the export market.
“The commodity market is volatile mainly because investors on the trading floor push up prices, but on the trend due to the lack of goods, so the market price is still required. Expectations, London trading floor can exceed the price of $ 2,200 per ton, “Nam said.
It is difficult to export processed coffee
This season, although the export volume of coffee has decreased but the export price has increased by 30.4%, the export turnover this year can be equivalent to the previous crop helps compensate for the decrease volume due to crop failure.
Although 2016-2017, Vietnam coffee has been badly harvested but it can be considered as a favorable year due to the decrease of global coffee production, especially the crop failure in Brazil. Global peaks, “Nam said.
However, despite being the world’s No. 1 exporter of Robusta coffee, Vietnam has long exported coffee mainly in raw form which does not bring high added value.
Previously, the export of instant coffee was very low compared to raw coffee, but now it has increased by about 15%. Coffee companies are starting to invest in instant coffee processing factories and strive Raised to 30%. Recently, however, a concern has surfaced that the Ministry of Finance is proposing the government to impose special sales tax on certain beverages and processed coffee. The package is also listed in this category.
A small instant coffee processing business, said: “When businesses are preparing to invest in instant coffee processing, the Ministry of Finance is proposing to impose special sales tax on instant coffee. So no one will dare invest and the goal of exporting processed coffee to 30% per year of Vietnam is in difficulty, while the State policy is very encouraging. Therefore, we request the Ministry of Finance to revise the tax adjustment for this item. “
(According to vneconomy.vn)
