According to Dang Hoang Giang, Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) PCT, export volume decreased due to difficulties in raw material sources. To offset the shortage of raw materials in the country, enterprises in the first months of the year has increased sharply crude imports.

Customs statistics show that in the first 5 months of 2015, cashew industry has imported up to 427,754 tons of raw cashew, up to 74.6% over the same period. As Vietnam pushed up the import of raw cashew nuts in large quantities at the beginning of the year, while some major cashew producers in Africa also fell sharply in output, making crude imports higher.

This is clearly evident in the NK value. If the import volume in the first five months rose to 74.8%, the value of raw material imports increased 125.3%. It is estimated that every ton of imported seafood imported to Vietnam has an average price of $ 1,952, while the average price in the first five months of last year is just $ 1,513 per ton.

Due to the difficulty of raw materials, companies are limited in the ability to supply finished products to the market. Meanwhile, the purchasing power in the market is also somewhat slow. These factors make the amount of cashew exports decrease. But in return, the price of kernel exports increased significantly. In the first five months of this year, the export price was $ 9,500 / ton, an increase of 25% over the same period of 2016.

In the second half of the year, the movements may not be much different from the first 6 months. Cashew industry is facing the pressure of raw materials, high raw material prices … Therefore, export price of kernel is difficult to adjust downward. Therefore, the amount of cashew exports can remain only 350,000 tons as last year, but export value will still increase and is expected to reach about 3.3 billion USD, of which the export value of cashew is $ 3 billion.

Coffee exports in the first half of this year also had the same happenings as cashew nuts, which was a drop in volume but increased in value. Specifically, from the beginning of the year to mid-June, the coffee sector has exported 766,959 tons, valued at $ 1.734 billion. Compared with the same period last year, export volume of coffee decreased by 14.97%, but increased by 11.5% in value.

Declining export volume is the main reason for the decline in production in 2016-2017, due to the drought of coffee growing and the heavy rain of flowering. In addition, the area of ​​coffee decreased in many localities as farmers switched to other crops or intercropped … also reduced coffee production. There have been many predictions about the output of 2016/2017 coffee, but one thing in common is that the output is down a lot. For example, the Vietnam Cocoa Coffee Association claims that production is down by 20-30%.

In the mid-June report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that robusta coffee production in Vietnam will reach only 25.6 million bags (each bag is 60kg), down 2.23 million bags compared to 2015/2016. The USDA also forecasts coffee exports in the 2016/2017 season of Vietnam only reached 25 million bags, down 1.95 million bags over the previous season.

In return for the reduction of production as well as quantity of export, coffee export price is always much higher than the same period of 2016. From the beginning of the year to mid June, export coffee price averaged over USD 2,200 / Much higher than the average price of over $ 1,700 / ton in the same period last year. That is the reason for the value of coffee exports increase while export volume decreased.

However, according to Nguyen Quang Binh, an analyst of the coffee market, in the second half of the year, coffee export prices will tend to weaken due to the reasons: Brazil boost sales sold by weakening domestic currency; The volume of goods that Vietnam’s speculators bought but still has not exported from Vietnam is still pretty much around 300,000 tons; The volume of coffee in the main consuming markets is North America, EU and Japan is quite large, from 1.2 to 1.5 million tons; 2017-2018 season, global coffee is likely to be seasonal, thus creating downward pressure on prices; The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in June, making it more difficult for speculators to borrow. However, it is unlikely that the export price of coffee will decline. Too far from $ 2,000 / ton. And thus, the price of coffee exports throughout the year may be higher than the average price last year ($ 1,872.8 / ton).

Rubber exports increased sharply again

According to the General Department of Customs, rubber is the fastest growing agricultural product value in the first half of this year. Specifically, from the beginning of the year to mid-June, the rubber sector has exported 411,960 tons, worth $ 787.553 million.

Compared with the same period of 2016, export rubber volume increased slightly by 5.35%, but value increased to 63.23%. Export value of rubber increased sharply thanks to the price of rubber exports earlier this year is higher than that of early last year. In the first five months of the year, average export price reached $ 1,957 per ton, up 59.8% over the same period in 2016.

Improve quality to keep the market

In the pepper industry, there are many actions to promote quality. Enterprises and farmers in many pepper areas, because of their survival, have found their own way to have clean pepper, meet the requirements of the import market.

Many exporters have actively cooperated with importers to build long-term program but very specific to the big pepper production areas of Vietnam, enterprises in coordination with local farmers gathering, training as well as farming techniques. Both management and management methods for pepper garden quality export.

In addition, along with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, VPA is taking concrete actions to build Vietnam’s pepper brand in a stronger direction from the core. At the same time promote trade promotion in some potential markets, not fully exploited in Eastern Europe, North Asia …

Promote promotion, domestic consumption

Up to now, domestic consumption accounts for only 5-7% of cashew production, focusing mainly on holidays. Therefore, Vinacas is waiting for the Global Cashew Board to announce the nutritious value of cashew nuts, and will hold a marketing program promoting cashew nut consumption in the domestic market, focusing on grain aspects. It has high nutritional value, good for health. Dang Hoang Giang said that if domestic consumption is raised to 20-30% of the total output of cashew, will be a significant figure for the cashew industry.

Pepper – Get the price

In the main agricultural products, pepper was the biggest drop in export value in the first half of this year.

According to the General Department of Customs, in the first 6 months of 2017, the export of pepper was estimated at over $ 715 million, a decrease of 16.8% over the same period of 2016. Despite a significant reduction in value, Often, it is even possible to have an advantage when the export volume increases by 18.3% over the same period and is estimated at over 125,000 tons.

Nguyen Thi Mai Oanh, vice chairman of the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA), said that the value of pepper exports decreased due to a sharp fall in world pepper prices due to supply surpluses. Every year the world needs around 400,000-4 420,000 tons but this year, due to the high supply of Vietnam, the global pepper production is projected to be about 500,000 tons in 2017, not counting reserves from the previous year.

In the second half of the year, the export price of pepper is likely to remain low, thereby reducing the export turnover of the whole year. But thanks to the export volume may be higher than last year, the value of pepper export throughout the year will not reduce too much.

(According to cafef.vn)